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News Story
Oil prices overblown, say some experts
Wed, May 14, 2008 2:00 PM EST

You might do well to hang on to your gas-guzzling automobile, no matter how much it guzzles. And don't believe all you hear and read about sky-high gasoline prices being here to stay.

The so-called 'experts' who predict the price of gasoline will exceed $2 a litre within the next few years could be wrong. And consumers who claim they are being gouged, if not ruined, by the current price spike are seriously exaggerating their plight.

When an analyst for one of Canada's leading banks predicts the cost of regular unleaded will soon hit $1.50 a litre, he's guessing. And bankers can be wrong. Look how they screwed up and lost billions of dollars by offering mortgages to people who couldn't afford to repay them.

The most recent scary headlines suggest the price of gasoline in Canada could climb to $2 a litre in the next six to 24 months. Other, equally qualified forecasters see things differently. They believe oil and gas prices are due for a fall. But their predictions don't make headlines.

With oil and gas, an old adage applies: what goes up must come down.

Peter Hall certainly thinks so. He's vice-president and deputy chief economist at Export Development Canada, and closely studies the oil and gasoline industry. He's been predicting that, by the end of this year, the price of oil will fall to about $70 a barrel from its recent levels of around $120 a barrel.

Mr. Hall says oil supplies and demand appear balanced. He notes that international oil company executives have expressed bewilderment at current prices. He believes prices have been driven up by speculators, and that a sharp downward correction is on the way for oil and gas prices.

If you don't believe a Canadian forecaster, consider the long-term outlook from the U.S. Energy Department.

It forecasts that the price of oil will gradually decline over the next few years – to about $68 a barrel by 2016. Mr. Hall says that forecast is "reasonable."

If this U.S. government long-range forecast is anything close to being right, you can continue driving those gas guzzlers for years to come – and, eight years from now, you could be paying around $1 a litre at the pumps. That's a far cry from $2.25 a litre predicted recently for 2012 by Jeff Rubin, of CIBC World Markets.

The U.S. government expects oil – and, therefore, gasoline – prices to fall over the next eight years, as increased investment in oil exploration brings new supplies to world markets.

What is absolutely known is that people have short memories. They forget that, slightly more than a year ago, oil cost less than half what it does today, says Mr. Hall.

According to the doomsayers, we'd be paying even more for gasoline today if it were not for the current strength of the Canadian dollar. They're right, of course. But the dollar owes its strength partly to the high cost of oil, since Canadians produce lots of oil and benefit from high oil prices – at least, many do.

You win some, you lose some. It costs us more to drive to a U.S. destination for a vacation. But we save through lower prices when we get there.

Meanwhile the CBC, our publicly funded broadcaster, leads panicky, sensationalist media coverage of the current high cost of gasoline. The simplistic broadcaster finds people who claim they might be better off going on welfare than paying the cost of driving to work.

Yes, gasoline is expensive. But it's still relatively cheap. You can probably still drive from Ottawa to Toronto, round trip, for less than $120. If two of you go, that's $60 each.

The rapidly declining resale value of your car is probably costing you more than the current spike in oil and gas prices. Or it will when you trade it in. So hang on to the gas guzzler as long as you can, I say. Then who cares whether your car's resale value declines or not?


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