Affluent residents, population growth keeps developers busy, but analysts warn any slowdown could hammer smaller businesses

Commercial development in the west of the city is set to grow faster than any part of Ottawa has seen in recent history, according to city data and market analysts.

Kanata and Stittsville, defined by the city as Ottawa's "west urban area," has dozens of development proposals on the go, in various stages of approval.

Currently, retail proposals alone wending their way through the city hall approval process total more than two million square feet.

"Nothing like this has happened in any part of Ottawa so far," said Barry Nabatian, an economic and retail analyst with Market Research Corp.

"For the commercial space, there is probably just under three million square feet in Kanata and Stittsville right now," echoed Burl Walker, a planner with the city. "We have a whole bunch of approvals right now that would almost double it."

Most of the development is centred around shopping centres, the new "power centres" of major cities, especially suburban communities like Kanata and Stittsville.

Mr. Nabatian added, however, that if all the proposals go forward, completion for some of them is likely years away. He also said many of the proposed developments will be entirely dependent on residential development proceeding apace.

Most of the development is focused in four areas: both sides of Highway 417 around Scotiabank Place; the burgeoning residential suburb of Stittsville; March Road in North Kanata and Eagleson Road in South Kanata.

In Stittsville, Sobeys is proposing a 114,000-square-foot shopping centre at 6303 Hazeldean Rd., at the intersection with Carp Road. Taggart, meanwhile, is hoping for a further 62,000-square-foot Giant Tiger, LCBO and Royal Bank down the road at the intersection of Hazeldean and Stittsville's Main Street.

Developers Bryton Capital Corp./CMHC, North American and Trinity, meanwhile, are each proposing 72,000-, 318,000- and 395,000-square-foot shopping centres, also on Hazeldean Road.

In and around the cloverleaf that is the Queensway and Terry Fox Drive, more than one million square feet of retail developments are proposed, including a new, 176,000-square-foot Loblaws and a 126,000-square-foot Rona, both on Campeau Drive, as well as 54,483 square feet of development at the Kanata Centrum, which would include a Scores Restaurant, a Moxie's Restaurant, Hockey Life and a Best Buy.

For North Kanata, Minto is proposing a 70,000-square-foot shopping plaza at 795 March Rd., a plaza that would include a 39,000-square-foot food store. Just up the road, Trinity is proposing a 109,000-square-foot shopping centre with a similar sized food store, while DIR Investments Inc. is hoping for a 52,000-square-foot Good Life gym and other retail stores a few blocks south.

An industry rule of thumb for Ontario has one resident supporting approximately 32 to 35 square feet of retail, service or restaurant space, Mr. Nabatian said. But he added that Kanata takes in shoppers from an area much larger than its population of 75,000 would normally support.

"The population of the effective market area is close to 200,000," he said, including Stittsville, West Carleton and Carleton Place. "It's a very, very large area. People as far west as Pembroke are coming to Kanata to shop."

"There have been a fair number of market studies that supports that," said Mr. Walker. "It's a fairly large trade area, (encompassing) Arnprior and Bell's Corners."

Multiply that added population by the industry standard, and Ottawa's west end could potentially support some six to seven million square feet of retail. Currently, the area has some 3.5 million square feet already on line.

Besides that, Mr. Nabatian said, residents of west Ottawa are just plain rich, on average, and have more money to spend than in other parts of the city.

"Other than places like Rockcliffe, the western part of Ottawa is the most affluent," he said. "In that part of the city, incomes are higher, and also lifestyles are more Americanized (and) consumer-oriented. More than 35 square feet per person can be supported, which is why so much is planned there."

Changes will come to Kanata's existing retail outlets when the new developments come onstream, Mr. Nabatian said, especially if residential units don't materialize as planned.

"There will be an oversupply situation. There will be high (commercial) vacancy," said Mr. Nabatian.

Stores that will suffer especially, he said, will be the smaller, independent clothing, shoe and electronics stores located along main drags, he said.

"They do not have as much or as convenient parking, and they don't have the draw of a shopping centre," he said.

"The new ones will do well, (with) better parking and access, and . . . from what we know, these are all major, national chains. National (chains) always do better than old, independent ones."

Especially hurt, he predicted, will be Kanata Centrum: it's difficult to access, and once the new Loblaws is built on Campeau Drive, the Loblaws at the Centrum will be closed, losing a major draw for the mall.

"That store will be converted to something else, but it will not be a food store," he said.

"It's a terribly designed centre, difficult to get in or out of. Once you're in, you can't walk from one end to the other, unlike South Keys. You take your life into your hands if you try. You must drive, you have no choice . . . I think the mall will suffer ... having said that, there are people who will disagree with me."

Traffic, already unbearable for some residents especially during the rush hours, will likely get worse, Mr. Nabatian and Mr. Walker agreed.

"The way the engineers determine it is by the volume of traffic. Often, it falls within standards, but perceptually, people think it's too crowded and they don't like it," Mr. Nabatian said.

However, "when people have no choice, they'll get used to it," he added.