CATA's Keith Carter. (Darren Brown, OBJ)

The Ottawa Business Journal's discussion board could hardly handle the traffic.

Unemployed workers, job seekers, technology professionals, and industry officials clashed online last week following a story suggesting that the technology industry's warnings of a looming skills shortage are simply smoke and mirrors.

Never had a topic spurred such passion and debate, eliciting more than 30 comments and 10,000 words (and counting) in 48 hours. Some unemployed technology workers applauded, believing a story debunking the skill shortage was long overdue. On the other hand, industry experts moved quickly to repel the idea that no shortage exists.

While many felt the shortage is simply a by-product of companies that are unwilling to retrain workers, others steadfastly insisted it's real and growing.

With more than a few conflicting stories, studies, and surveys published in the past few years, it's completely understandable that many simply don't know what to believe.

In the middle of the fray was Keith Carter, Procom Consultants Group vice-president of business development and a board member of the Canadian Advanced Technology Alliance (CATA) board member.

Although he agreed that just about anyone could find statistics to back up their position, Mr. Carter submitted that the view of the market among the sector's decision makers is the only important factor in the equation.

"Understanding the labour market that you are in is very important because it is the perceptions that will drive the attitudes," he said.

"What companies are really doing today is acquiring the 'dream team.' That's the way that a lot of executives are looking at it – there are hundreds of thousands of unemployed workers, but we still have a skill shortage."

CATA surveyed Ottawa companies last July in a "qualitative" study to uncover the attitudes toward hiring in the region's boardrooms. While it found that almost nine in 10 would hire in 2006, about half also felt they'd have trouble filling jobs.

The biggest difference on the job market between the late 1990s and today is that companies are no longer looking for the "cannon fodder" with basic skills, they only want to hire people with highly specific talents that push technology forward.

Essentially, the industry continues to focus on finding the top talents that are in short supply, while overlooking the workers whose skills may be less that up-to-date.

"It's a harsh reality but if you are a CEO with a very defined budget – much different than it was in the year 2000, you are going to do everything you can to acquire the talent you need today," Mr. Carter said.

"People are sitting out there unemployed, but there are jobs turning over every single day in the marketplace. Unfortunately not everyone is suited to every job – that's as politically correct as I can put it."

The reason is simple, says Mr. Carter.

In a market where leading technology becomes obsolete in less than two years, the people who create it also suffer the same fate. Essentially, it may be time for some to realize that the industry has simply passed them by.

As more companies continue to pursue an ever-shrinking pool at the top end of the spectrum, there's no doubt that talk of shortages will continue, said Ted Jackson, chair of the Carleton Centre for Community Innovation. Mr. Jackson also co-authored the June 2005 study "Steering on Black Ice: The Continuing Search for Sustainable Livelihoods in the Ottawa Tech Sector" with fellow Carleton University professor Rahil Khan.

Mr. Jackson put the blame squarely on a technology industry that has continued to demand a more specialized skill set from workers, which in turn puts many at a much higher risk of being left out in the cold.

"The tech industry is becoming the author of its own misfortune. If highly specialized workers are simply thrown overboard when skill-set requirements change, they will certainly change rapidly and frequently," Mr. Jackson said.

While both men concur that the industry is partially creating its own shortage, Mr. Carter argued that companies' demands simply reflect today's environment.

"I would agree loosely that that is the case for sure. But it's also the case when you look at technology evolution," he said.

The other problem for unemployed workers is that companies who are going to invest in training and development for a new hire are more likely to undertake it with a new graduate. Recent graduates have the potential to be an asset for decades, while older workers may only have a few years left in their careers.

Nevertheless, Mr. Jackson suggested that a good place to start finding workable solutions to the problem would be gathering all the players together as soon as possible to discuss skills shortages and find ways to learn from the damage caused by downturn.

Social organizations that have had to "clean up the mess" caused by the tech sector bust, from the food banks to the Community Foundation, should also be included along with all levels of government.

"The conference I'm suggesting would be a place to air these issues, confront the real obstacles facing entrepreneurs and workers, and find some solutions that build businesses and our community at the same time," he said.

"Other tech centres are wrestling with these challenges. Let's find out what they're doing and they might be interested in learning about (the Ottawa Talent Initiative) and other things we're doing here, as well."

In an October 2005 study of 25 technology centres, researchers at the University of New Hampshire found that greater diversification enabled regions to more effectively manage the ebb and flow of the high-tech industry.

Encouraging expansion outside the tech sector would go a long way to cushioning the region from the effects of a downturn by strengthening areas such as tourism and non-tech manufacturing. Mr. Jackson suggested the Ottawa Manufacturers' Network is one area needing particular attention.

"Only one-third of all manufacturing in our region is done for high-tech; the rest is produced for diverse sectors. The stronger the non-tech manufacturing sector, the better our regional economy can withstand the inevitable technology downturns in the future," he said.

Conference or not, it may simply be too late for some. With today's technology companies attacking specific markets with targeted applications and increasing their reliance on outsourcing for non-critical areas, the chances that jobs for those shut out of the recent job surge will continue to be slim.

Today's typical technology company employs between 60 and 100 workers and few will grow to the sizes that were seen in the late 1990s.

So, who is responsible for helping workers update their skills and find ways to re-enter the workforce? That is another subject of fierce debate among experts.

Mr. Carter insisted that most companies displace individual employees for economic reasons and deeming them responsible for retraining would double the pain for the enterprise.

"I am not against the idea. It's a social responsibility that's more for the government than industry to deal with," Mr. Carter said.

"This isn't utopia, this is a free market economy. It's a very, very difficult situation and the fact of the matter is that there are some people in the technology sector who no longer have the skills necessary to find sustained work."

While it might be a hard pill to swallow, a free flowing market means technology workers are prone to the same forces that affect other industries, where some workers' skills get to the point where they are no longer applicable.

Mr. Jackson suggested that the problem could be partially alleviated by rewarding the industry for investing in the region's human resources through incentives, such as a more favourable tax treatment for companies that retrain older workers and put resources toward continuous skills upgrading for employees.

"If it is all up to the worker, as apparently CATA is saying, and certainly some, but not all, business leaders are also saying, we have some serious issues to deal with," Mr. Jackson said.

"Even if workers are successful in continuously reskilling themselves, and often moving from firm to firm, as they and their families mature, they will need important things: eyeglasses, dental plans, other forms of insurance, pension plans – not to mention decent, livable wages."

Next week we continue with Part III of Time for an Upgrade, speaking with members of a grassroots online community called OttawaHiTech.

By Jeff Pappone

Special to the Ottawa Business Journal