OCRI chief Jeffrey Dale (Darren Brown, OBJ).

Jeffrey Dale's recent prediction that the local high-tech workforce will bloom to 100,000 within three years has spurred debate among those in the industry.

The bullish claim by the president of the Ottawa Centre for Research and Innovation has been met with a range of reaction from agreement to bewilderment.

Adam Chowaniec, chairman of Tundra Semiconductor Corp. and executive in residence at Vengrowth Capital Partners, agrees the tide had turned for the tech industry, but believes Mr. Dale's numbers were inflated. "I think those numbers are optimistic. It looks like the rate of growth with the companies we have – barring an unexpected pick up like Nortel leaving town – will see the numbers back up to the previous peak employment of five years ago of about 80,000 workers by 2010."

Mr. Chowaniec admitted the 100,000 plateau could still happen, but said myriad good fortune would be required. "Some companies could experience surprising growth and increase these numbers, but overall I think Jeff is on the optimistic side."

Not so fast, Mr. Dale countered. Not even small miracles will be needed to reach that level. A number of factors are already at work that will eventually prove him right. "Those in the know here are downgrading it, but it's only going to grow. It's the first time the tech industry has gone through such a major restructuring. It's gone through tough times the past few years without much help from the government, but they're tougher for it.

"The question is where are you on the wheel? I say we're on the first third right now with a long way to grow still."

Corporate growth, a marked upsurge in venture capital and other increased government support can make it all happen, he continued. "One benchmark to look at is small to medium companies where employment has doubled. Sure, some have gone from one to two employees or two to four, but I'm talking about the ones that have gone from 20 to 40 or 40 to 80 employees. Nortel lays a bunch of people off and everyone panics, but Nortel is not the bellweather of technology. Many others are growing, so I see no reason the sector won't grow to 100,000 in three years."

Paul Labarge, a senior partner at Labarge Weinstein LLP, was compelled to support Mr. Dale's outlook. He said both large and small indicators mean significant growth is in the offing. "I can certainly tell you the growth in the sector is pretty visible," he said. "I see it from four or five different perspectives. I can simply look out my window and see the parking lots filling up again. Financing is being done – new money is being injected into new companies for new ventures."

He added that even small, seemingly insignificant signs are pointing to a boom. "This is a basic one, but the guy who sells sandwiches in our building said things are getting really busy for him. He sees the buildings filling up again."

Venture capitalist Denzil Doyle was reluctant to endorse Mr. Dale's claim, but he too predicted an immediate bright future for the industry. "It might be a little aggressive, but the upturn has begun. There are lots of good, solid smaller companies that are growing and others that are larger but also growing at a good pace.

"There's also quite a pool of venture capital out there and it's a pool with a lot of expertise. Compared with 15 years ago, they're more knowledgeable and able to wait as solid companies grow. I'd say back then they were more money merchants than today."

Without giving any trade secrets away, Mr. Doyle did spotlight a few companies to observe in the coming year or so. "Some companies I'd watch for are Tundra Semiconductor, SiGe and March Networks among a few other well managed companies going forward. They're strong, they have good management and vision and they didn't throw their companies away ... when the going was tough."

Mr. Dale stressed that all the opinions make for interesting reading, but the 100,000 jobs would only be created if cool heads prevailed and gathered together to discuss strategy and goals.

"I want a debate on how to get there, not a lot of people saying we can't. You'll never get anywhere without a goal, so we needed to set one," said Mr. Dale. "We have to discover what we need to do to tell students that there are rewarding careers here and what we have to do to convince successful companies that they can be world leaders without having to move. What do we do with the investment side? Ten years ago there was $60 million in venture capital, last year there was $240 million."

By Scott Taylor

scott.taylor@transcontinental.ca